A STOCHASTIC-MODEL OF SUPERSTARDOM - AN APPLICATION OF THE YULE DISTRIBUTION

This study employs a stochastic model developed by G. Udny Yule and He rbert A. Simon as the probability mechanism underlying the consumer's choice of artistic products and predicts that artistic outputs will be concentrated among a few lucky individuals. We find that the probabil ity distribution implied by the stochastic model provides an excellent description of the empirical data in the popular music industry, sugg esting that the stochastic model may represent the process generating the superstar phenomenon. Because the stochastic model does not requir e differential talents among individuals, our empirical results suppor t the notion that the superstar phenomenon could exist among individua ls with equal talent.