PREDICTING RECIDIVISM IN JUVENILE DELINQUENTS - THE ROLE OF MENTAL-HEALTH DIAGNOSES AND THE QUALIFICATION OF CONCLUSIONS BY RACE

Seventy-five male youths were evaluated while incarcerated in a juveni le facility in the state of Georgia. Twenty-one to 32 months following discharge, criminal files were examined for records of reincarceratio n. The recidivism rate was approximately one-third of the initial samp le. Crime-related and mental health variables were entered into discri minant function analyses to determine models for predicting recidivism . For the total sample, earlier age at first arrest and higher severit y of crime significantly discriminated recidivists from nonrecidivists . Presence of a substance abuse disorder appeared to be a positive pro gnostic indicator for nonrecidivism. Subsequently, separate sets of an alyses were conducted by race, showing clearly that the results were q ualified by race, and that differential processes may be operating for African-American vs Caucasian youth when considering recidivism.