CANCER INCIDENCE - LIFE TABLE RISK VERSUS CUMULATIVE RISK

Study objective - To study differences between various methods of esti mating cancer risk in individuals. Design - Information was obtained f rom a cancer registry. Lifetime risk was calculated using the life tab le method, taking competing causes of death into account and using wel l recognised methods such as the cumulative rate and risk. Setting - R egional cancer registry of the Comprehensive Cancer Centre IKL, locate d in Maastricht, The Netherlands. Patients - Patients with a first pri mary malignancy in 1989-90 in the catchment area of the cancer registr y. Main results - The lifetime risk of developing cancer was estimated to be 34.8% for males and 30.4% for females. In males, especially, th e risk estimates were considerably higher when the cumulative risk was used. Conclusions - The Life table method is convenient for estimatin g the probability that a person will develop cancer during a defined p eriod or during his or her Lifetime. The other estimates overestimate the risk of the disease under investigation, especially in the very el derly.