PROBABILITY, CONDITIONAL-PROBABILITY AND COMPLEMENTARY CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION-FUNCTIONS IN PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT FOR RADIOACTIVE-WASTE DISPOSAL

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance as sessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S-st, S -st, p(st)) for stochastic certainty, a probability space (S-su, S-su, p(su)) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random vari able) defined on the product space associated with (S-st, S-st, p(st)) and (S-su, S-su, p(su)). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of pro bability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distrib ution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the c ontext of the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the ge ologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The para digm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logic ally consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems. Published by Elssevier Science Limited.