ECOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS OF PROJECTED CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS OF CENTRAL NORTH-AMERICA

Climate change scenarios in central North America were projected for s elected weather stations using a stochastic daily weather simulation m odel. The projections were conditioned on changes in seasonal temperat ure and precipitation as predicted by several global climate models. T he impacts of these projected changes on temperate forest ecosystems w ere evaluated through projected changes in such variables as average a nnual temperature, average growing season temperature, and the ratio o f potential evaporation to precipitation during July and August. Even the mildest climate change scenario examined indicated that ecological ly significant changes could occur in the composition and productivity of these forests. The possibility also exists that climatically induc ed regional decline episodes for a number of important commercial spec ies could occur in the northern temperate forests of central North Ame rica.