Ea. Jones et al., ECOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS OF PROJECTED CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS OF CENTRAL NORTH-AMERICA, Agricultural and forest meteorology, 72(1-2), 1994, pp. 31-46
Climate change scenarios in central North America were projected for s
elected weather stations using a stochastic daily weather simulation m
odel. The projections were conditioned on changes in seasonal temperat
ure and precipitation as predicted by several global climate models. T
he impacts of these projected changes on temperate forest ecosystems w
ere evaluated through projected changes in such variables as average a
nnual temperature, average growing season temperature, and the ratio o
f potential evaporation to precipitation during July and August. Even
the mildest climate change scenario examined indicated that ecological
ly significant changes could occur in the composition and productivity
of these forests. The possibility also exists that climatically induc
ed regional decline episodes for a number of important commercial spec
ies could occur in the northern temperate forests of central North Ame
rica.