TEMPORAL REGULARITIES IN HOMICIDE - CYCLES, SEASONS, AND AUTOREGRESSION

It has long been assumed that there exists a relationship between crim e (including homicide) and season. After discussing three analytic app roaches to this problem (looking for seasonality, a general autoregres sive process, and cycles), we review the literature and show that conf using and conflicting findings have been reported about the temporal r egularities of homicide. Employing monthly data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports (1976-1989), we find evidence for seasonality, autor egression, and cyclicality of homicide. Our modeling approaches clarif y the previous conflicting research; implications for theory and futur e research are discussed.