SCENARIO PLANNING - A TOOL FOR STRATEGIC THINKING

AMONG THE MANY TOOLS A MANAGER CAN USE FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING, SCENARI O PLANNING STANDS OUT FOR ITS ABILITY TO CAPTURE A WHOLE RANGE OF poss ibilities in rich detail. By identifying basic trends and uncertaintie s, a manager can construct a series of scenarios that will help to com pensate for the usual errors in decision making - overconfidence and t unnel vision. Through case studies of Interpublic, an international ad vertising agency, and Anglo-American Corporation in South Africa, the author describes how to build scenarios in a step-by-step process and how to use the resulting stories to plan a company's future.