DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS OF MIXED BROADLEAVED PINUS-KORAIENSIS FORESTS IN THE CHANGBAISHAN BIOSPHERE RESERVE OF CHINA

The development of mixed broadleaved-Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis Sie b. et Zucc.) forests in the Changbaishan Biosphere Reserve, located on the border with North Korea, was simulated using the gap model KOPIDE . Forest succession was simulated under three initial conditions from: (1) bare ground after clearcutting; (2) secondary forest; (3) old-gro wth forest. The simulations from the different initial conditions conv erged and support earlier successional theory that Korean pine is the climax species on the highlands of northeast China even under disturbe d conditions. In addition to clear-cutting, the resilience of the fore st to different levels of other human impacts, pine seed harvesting an d selective cutting, was examined. These results further demonstrate t hat these forests possess a relatively stable structure characterized by the dominance of Korean pine. However, the model showed successiona l processes of the forest to be susceptible to high levels of pine see d harvesting. To predict forest dynamics at landscape scales, KOPIDE w as linked with a Geographical Information System containing site and s tand data sets. Running this model to simulate a forested area initial ly comprising several successional stages suggests that, in the absenc e of disturbance, Korean pine is likely to become increasingly dominan t on the area over the next century.