SIMULATED POPULATIONS OF THE BLACK SALT-MARSH MOSQUITO (AEDES-TAENIORHYNCHUS) IN A FLORIDA MANGROVE FOREST

A simulation model of the population dynamics of the black salt marsh mosquito (Aedes taeniorhynchus) in a mangrove basin forest in southwes tern Florida is described. This mosquito is a major pest in coastal Fl orida, with large populations migrating many kilometres from the breed ing site. The basic model realistically simulated annual population tr ends and the occurrence of larval broods. Model output (adult females and sum of eggs, larvae and adult females) was most sensitive to adult survival, larval predator populations and immigration of adult female s. Detailed analysis of dispersal indicated that persistence of mosqui toes was dependent upon immigration and the absence of tidal flooding and attendant larval predators. Model versions incorporating fish-medi ated oviposition repellency and increased survival in young autogenous adult females led to a respective 21% decrease and 267% increase in m ean adult female population. These results suggest that a model offeri ng alternative, predator-free oviposition sites for migrating females would more realistically simulate natural populations.