DESALINATION IN ISRAEL - EMERGING KEY COMPONENT IN THE REGIONAL WATER-BALANCE FORMULA

As a result of rapid population growth, Israel, Jordan and the Palesti nian entity are experiencing a worsening water shortage, which, unless properly addressed., threatens to cripple their future development. T hirty-year projections of water demand indicate that even if all margi nal water resources were to be effectively utilized and conservation m easures fully implemented, chronic shortages will be deferred only 10- 5 years. Conservation by restructuring sectoral water use through econ omic policy is impeded by the ideological primacy of agriculture, comm itment to food self-sufficiency, and prospects of social and political destabilization. Importation of water by short land conveyances can p rovide only near-term solutions, while most long-distance, inter-basin al transfers are impractical because of a combination of economic, pol itical and water rights issues. Marine conveyance, though attractive o n paper, is as yet an unproven concept. Desalination of Mediterranean or Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba) seawater will satisfy future water demands an d guarantee security of supply through joint management. The latest no tions of ''Two-Seas'' (Mediterranean Sea-Dead Sea and Red Sea-Dead Sea ) desalination schemes envision fueling by hydropower and/or solar ene rgy, the co-generation of electricity, and aquacultural and tourist sp in-offs. An alternative scheme proposes a jointly managed Israeli-Egyp tian (and possibly Palestinian) plant, to be located on the southern M editerranean coast, that would be powered either by coal or by gas pip ed from the Suez fields. This study explores the relative merits of th e proposed desalination schemes. The estimated costs of producing desa lined seawater are about two to three times the average cost of water from conventional sources. However, fossil and renewable energy cost t rends, introduction of innovative power generating technologies, and e conomies of size may all combine to reduce desalination costs 15-25% b y the beginning of the next decade. The predicted higher costs of desa linated seawater will limit its use to satisfy domestic needs and to r aising high value-added crops. Massive desalination would also facilit ate the redistribution of disputed water resources, boost the regional industrial capacity by co-generating clean energy, and expand the rec reational potential of the region. The regional cooperation necessitat ed by the need to pool financial resources and ensure optimal water al location between Israel and some of its neighbors heralds the potentia l of making water in this troubled area of the Middle East a catalyst for peace, rather than a subject of protracted conflict.