As a result of rapid population growth, Israel, Jordan and the Palesti
nian entity are experiencing a worsening water shortage, which, unless
properly addressed., threatens to cripple their future development. T
hirty-year projections of water demand indicate that even if all margi
nal water resources were to be effectively utilized and conservation m
easures fully implemented, chronic shortages will be deferred only 10-
5 years. Conservation by restructuring sectoral water use through econ
omic policy is impeded by the ideological primacy of agriculture, comm
itment to food self-sufficiency, and prospects of social and political
destabilization. Importation of water by short land conveyances can p
rovide only near-term solutions, while most long-distance, inter-basin
al transfers are impractical because of a combination of economic, pol
itical and water rights issues. Marine conveyance, though attractive o
n paper, is as yet an unproven concept. Desalination of Mediterranean
or Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba) seawater will satisfy future water demands an
d guarantee security of supply through joint management. The latest no
tions of ''Two-Seas'' (Mediterranean Sea-Dead Sea and Red Sea-Dead Sea
) desalination schemes envision fueling by hydropower and/or solar ene
rgy, the co-generation of electricity, and aquacultural and tourist sp
in-offs. An alternative scheme proposes a jointly managed Israeli-Egyp
tian (and possibly Palestinian) plant, to be located on the southern M
editerranean coast, that would be powered either by coal or by gas pip
ed from the Suez fields. This study explores the relative merits of th
e proposed desalination schemes. The estimated costs of producing desa
lined seawater are about two to three times the average cost of water
from conventional sources. However, fossil and renewable energy cost t
rends, introduction of innovative power generating technologies, and e
conomies of size may all combine to reduce desalination costs 15-25% b
y the beginning of the next decade. The predicted higher costs of desa
linated seawater will limit its use to satisfy domestic needs and to r
aising high value-added crops. Massive desalination would also facilit
ate the redistribution of disputed water resources, boost the regional
industrial capacity by co-generating clean energy, and expand the rec
reational potential of the region. The regional cooperation necessitat
ed by the need to pool financial resources and ensure optimal water al
location between Israel and some of its neighbors heralds the potentia
l of making water in this troubled area of the Middle East a catalyst
for peace, rather than a subject of protracted conflict.