USING PARITY-PROGRESSION RATIOS TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECT OF FEMALE STERILIZATION ON FERTILITY

In this article, a new methodology that employs parity-progression rat ios to estimate the effect of female sterilization on fertility is des cribed, and results using data from Ecuador are compared to those obta ined using a previously existing approach that classifies women by mar ital duration. The methods differ in how they disaggregate marital fer tility and in the assumption they make about what the subsequent ferti lity of sterilized women would have been if they had not been steriliz ed. The analysis of the Ecuadoran data shows that the estimate of birt hs averted by sterilization has diminished over time, even as steriliz ation prevalence has been increasing. This situation is attributed to a decline in the fertility of nonsterilized women resulting from incre ased use of reversible methods of contraception.