APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS AND DESIGN METHODS IN-SPACE PROGRAMS

The use of probabilistic analysis and design methods in space programs is steadily gaining acceptance within the aerospace community. To fur ther enhance the development and application of probabilistic methods, four actions are recommended: 1) the development of theories, codes, and tools to match the task areas; 2) an understanding of prior applic ations/uses of probability and statistics, and databases; 3) the devel opment of databases, in particular structural failures; and 4) educati on of engineers and managers on the merits and basics of probability/r eliability methods. The approaches, the status, and the needs for thes e actions are examined in terms of the current limitations of probabil istic engineering methods, a basic approach for its application, a dis cussion of some specific uses, and recommendations of critical develop ment areas.