TEMPORAL ALLELE FREQUENCY CHANGE AND ESTIMATION OF EFFECTIVE SIZE IN POPULATIONS WITH OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS

In this paper we study the process of allele frequency change in finit e populations with overlapping generations with the purpose of evaluat ing the possibility of estimating the effective size from observations of temporal frequency shifts of selectively neutral alleles. Focusing on allele frequency changes between successive cohorts (individuals b orn in particular years), we show that such changes are not determined by the effective population size alone, as they are when generations are discrete. Rather, in populations with overlapping generations, the amount of temporal allele frequency change is dependent on the age-sp ecific survival and birth rates. Taking this phenomenon into account, we present an estimator for effective size that can be applied to popu lations with overlapping generations.