Disproportionate hyperproinsulinemia is one manifestation of the B-cel
l dysfunction observed in non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NID
DM), but it is unclear when this abnormality develops and whether it p
redicts the development of NHDDM. At baseline, measurements of proinsu
lin (PI) and immunoreactive insulin (IRI) levels were made in 87 secon
d-generation Japanese-American men, a population at high risk for the
subsequent development of NIDDM, and, by using World Health Organizati
on criteria, subjects were categorized as having normal glucose tolera
nce (NGT; n = 49) or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT; n = 38). After a
B-year follow-up period, they were recategorized as NGT, IGT, or NIDD
M using the same criteria. After 5 years, 16 subjects had developed NI
DDM, while 71 had NGT or IGT. Individuals who developed NIDDM were mor
e obese at baseline, measured as intra-abdominal fat (IAF) area on com
puted tomography (P = 0.046) but did not differ in age horn those who
continued to have NGT or IGT. At baseline, subjects who subsequently d
eveloped NIDDM had higher fasting glucose (P = 0.0042), 2-h glucose (P
= 0.0002), fasting C-peptide (P = 0.0011), and fasting PI levels (P =
0.0033) and disproportionate hyperproinsulinemia (P = 0.056) than tho
se who continued to have NGT or IGT after 5 years of follow-np. NIDDM
incidence was positively correlated with the absolute fasting PI level
(relative odds = 2.35; P = 0.0025), even after adjustment for fasting
IRI, IAF, and body mass index (relative odds = 2.17; P = 0.013). Beca
use 12 of the 16 subjects who developed NIDDM had IGT at baseline, the
38 IGT subjects were also examined separately. In this cohort, the sa
me risk factors (fasting and 2-h glucose, fasting C-peptide, and fasti
ng PI levels) were predict;ive for the development of NIDDM. We conclu
de that Japanese-American men who subsequently develop NIDDM have more
IAF and increased glucose, C-peptide, and PI levels. These data sugge
st that alterations in PI may be a new marker for the subsequent devel
opment of NIDDM.