MANIFEST PREDICTORS OF PAST SUICIDE ATTEMPTS IN A POPULATION OF ICELANDIC ADOLESCENTS

Past suicide attempts have been found to be a major risk factor for bo th repeated attempts and completed suicide. The utility of this is, ho wever, limited by the fact that the majority of all suicide attempts n ever come to professional attention. This paper explores the possibili ty of using manifest indicators to predict which individuals in a popu lation of adolescents have attempted suicide. Using logistic regressio n, manifest predictors in the categories of school, leisure, peer and parent relations, consumption, and contact with suicidal behavior coul d identify either a quarter of the population containing three quarter s of all suicide attempters or 2% of the population where two thirds o f those predicted actually had attempted suicide. It is thus concluded that manifest predictors can complement psychiatric screening methods by efficiently reducing the number to be screened.