A MULTIVARIATE-ANALYSIS OF FACTORS RELATED TO THE MORTALITY OF BLUNT TRAUMA ADMISSIONS TO THE NORTH-STAFFORDSHIRE-HOSPITAL-CENTER

Objective: To identify characteristics of blunt trauma admissions asso ciated with mortality and to derive a linear logistic model for predic ting the probability of mortality. Design: A prospective observational study. Materials and Methods: Data were collected on blunt trauma pat ients admitted via the Accident and Emergency Department, North Staffo rdshire Hospital Centre, Univariate and multivariate analyses were per formed of potential risk factors associated with mortality. Measuremen ts and Main Results: The main outcome variable was survival or death o ccurring in hospital within 30 days of admission, Injury Severity Scor e, age, Revised Trauma Score, and place of injury (road traffic, home, or elsewhere) mere independently related to mortality, The effect of age on mortality was best described using three categories: 0-64 exclu ding 15-24, 15-24, 65+. The survival probability model suggests that a person whose injury occurs in the home has a lower probability of sur vival than a patient with similar age and trauma scores who is involve d in a road traffic accident. A model validation check indicated good agreement between model predictions and patient outcomes. Conclusions: The authors propose that use of this model may provide a more accurat e evaluation of the mortality of British trauma admissions than would be obtained using models based on data from American trauma cases.