7 COMPONENTS OF JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING SKILL - IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH AND THE IMPROVEMENT OF FORECASTS

A decomposition of the Brier skill scores shows that the performance o f judgmental forecasts depends on seven components: environmental pred ictability, fidelity of the information system, match between environm ent and forecaster, reliability of information acquisition, reliabilit y of information processing, conditional bias, and unconditional bias. These components provide a framework for research on the forecasting process. Selected literature addressing each component is reviewed, an d implications for improving judgmental forecasting are discussed.