INFORMATION CUES AND INDICATORS OF THE CLIMATE OF OPINION - THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE THEORY IN THE INTIFADA

This article explores the informational assumptions in Noelle-Neumann' s spiral of silence theory. It is based empirically on data from in-de pth interviews employing the ''thinking aloud'' protocols methodology, and survey data from Israel during the Intifada. Our respondents base their estimates of the climate of opinion on a broader, sounder, and more robust information array than the rather narrow and socially base d overt opinion expression cues assumed by Noelle-Neumann. Different i nformation cues are used for assessing opinion distributions and opini on trends. Aggregate trend analysis further supports the inconsistency between these alternative indicators of the climate of opinion. These results are discussed with the framework of structural constraints an d major competing approaches to public opinion. The information enviro nment is suggested to be the primary factor in specifying the role of social adjustment mechanisms versus event information in determining t he direction in which public opinion evolves.