PREDICTING ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY BY 1 JUNE

This is the third in a series of papers describing the potential for t he seasonal forecasting of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. E arlier papers by the authors describe seasonal prediction from 1 Decem ber of the previous year and from 1 August of the current year; this w ork demonstrates the degree of predictability by 1 June, the ''officia l'' beginning of the hurricane season. Through three groupings consist ing of 13 separate predictors, hindcasts are made that explain 51%-72% of the variability as measured by cross-validated agreement coefficie nts for eight measures of seasonal tropical cyclone activity. The thre e groupings of predictors include 1) an extrapolation of quasi-biennia l oscillation of 50- and 30-mb zonal winds and the vertical shear betw een the 50- and 30-mb zonal winds (three predictors); 2) West African rainfall, sea level pressure, and temperature data (four predictors); and 3) Caribbean basin and El Ni (n) over tilde o-Southern Oscillation information including Caribbean 200-mb zonal winds and sea level pres sures, equatorial eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures and Souther n Oscillation index values, and their changes in time (six predictors) . The cross validation is carried out using least sum of absolute devi ations regression that provides an efficient procedure for the maximum agreement measure criterion. Corrected intense hurricane data for the 1950s and 1960s have been incorporated into the forecasts. Comparison s of these 1 June forecast results with forecast results from 1 Decemb er of the year previous and 1 August of the current year are also give n.