D. Viner et al., CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE ASSESSMENTS OF THE CLIMATE-CHANGE ONREGIONAL ECOSYSTEMS, Journal of thermal biology, 20(1-2), 1995, pp. 175-190
This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the co
nstruction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the
paper is the construction of regional climate change scenarios from c
limate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models
(GCMs). An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highli
ghts the difference between model types and experiments (e.g. equilibr
ium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments
have been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs. These
allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with res
pect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a
number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for
the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate chang
e impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate cha
nge experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climat
e change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are
: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas co
ncentration scenarios; the ''cold-start'' problem which makes it hard
to link future projections of climate change a given calendar year; an
d the drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. I
n order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a
method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. A
t present the climate modelling and climate change impacts communities
are somewhat polarised in their approach to spatial scales. Current G
CMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 degrees x 3.75 de
grees, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken
at scales below 50 km (or 0.5 degrees). This paper concludes by addre
ssing the problems in bringing together these two different modelling
perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenari
os.