DEVELOPMENT OF A COLIC SEVERITY SCORE FOR PREDICTING THE OUTCOME OF EQUINE COLIC

Thirty-two physical examination and laboratory variables were recorded during examination of 165 horses admitted for acute abdominal disease . Univariate analyses were performed to determine which of the variabl es were significantly different between horses that lived or died. Ste pwise logistic regression was performed to identify variables with the best predictive value. Four variables (heart rate, peritoneal fluid t otal protein concentration, blood lactate concentration, and abnormal mucous membrane) remained significant when entered into the model. His tograms for each significant variable were used to set ''cutting-point s,'' establishing categories that were made into a table of assigned v alues from which a Colic Severity Score (CSS) for each horse was calcu lated. Seventy-one horses in a second group were used to validate the scoring chart. Case mortality rate was similar in both groups (20.6% i n development group versus 21.1% in validation group). All horses with a CSS > 7 died, whereas 75% of those with a score of less than or equ al to 7 lived. For the validation group, use of the scoring table yiel ded a positive predictive value of 100%, negative predictive value of 91.8%, sensitivity of 66.7%, and specificity of 100%. The overall accu racy of the CSS was 93%. The CSS is a rapid and accurate method for pr edicting survival in cases of equine acute abdominal disease. (C)Copyr ight 1995 by The American College of Veterinary Surgeons