COMPUTER-MODEL FOR RISK-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF MAMMOGRAPHIC BREAST-CANCER SCREENING

To be able to evaluate and improve breast screening protocols, a Monte Carlo computer model was developed to obtain a better insight into th e influence of various parameters. To test the model, a comparison has been made with results obtained from the Swedish two-county study in terms of prevalence, rate of interval rumours and diameters of screene d, interval and spontaneous tumours. Simulation of screening of a stab le Swedish female population indicates, e.g. that a starting age for s creening of 40 years seems optimal. Screening at ages in excess of 80 years results in detection of a high number of tumours that would nor cause mortality due to a limited lifetime expectancy.