CRUDE-OIL AND NATURAL-GAS SUPPLIES AND DEMANDS FOR DENMARK

A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle s of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply s ide utilises a 'skewed-normal production-profile' model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extr apolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised: it is based on the so-called 'modified legit function : The predicted cru de oil and natural gas balances, for the period up to Ao 2010, indicat e the disparities between the rates of indigenous production and futur e consumption for Denmark. These forecasts depend on the present estim ates of the remaining crude oil and natural gas reserves. It will cons equently be necessary to revise periodically the present projection as move reliable reserves estimates become available.