AN ECONOMIC-ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE IN EGYPT

Projections of climate impacts on crop yields simulated for different General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios are used, in a recursively d ynamic general equilibrium framework, to account for potential economy -wide impacts of climate change in Egypt, Comparing impact projections to those obtained under a reference, business-as-usual, scenario assu ming some moderate changes in the political, economic or technological spheres, indicates that global warming has potentially negative effec ts. The analysis is based on a global assessment of potential climate change-induced variations in world commodity production and trade. The Egyptian agricultural sector, and the non-agricultural sector to a le sser extent, are projected to be increasingly less self-sufficient. Sp ecific potential adverse impacts are identified. The simulation result s show that high-cost adaptation measures involving major changes in t he agricultural system and practices may mitigate these adverse impact s. Stimulating economic development of the rural areas and creating ap propriate conditions for effective diffusion and development of techno logies - particularly for the agricultural sector - would seem a desir able strategy. Perhaps, more importantly, the simulation results show that the assumption of exogenously determined technological progress m ay be inappropriate, in which case the potential adverse impacts of a future warming of the global climate are likely to be fewer than is in dicated in this study - if prevailing constraints on productivity grow th in the major food and feed grains are 'released' by endogenous adva nces in technology.