THE EVOLUTION OF AN ENERGY CONTRARIAN

An analysis of the forces that have shaped energy and energy-related e nvironmental policies is presented through the eyes of an active parti cipant in their evolution over the past 53 years. The problem of self- interest in taking energy and environmental policy positions is addres sed candidly. The ''energy crisis'' is cited as an example. Its credib ility depended on excessive demand projections, coupled with erroneous assessments of US and global hydrocarbon resources and of prospects f or making these resources economically recoverable through technology advances. Many energy crisis proponents benefited from the misguided g overnment response and from the large investments in uneconomic synthe tic fuel technologies. Today, proponents of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change, again claiming scientific consensus, threaten to crea te even greater energy market distortions at large social and economic costs. The author traces his conversion to energy contrarian to the g eneral failure of consensus and to his own misjudgments in these criti cal policy areas.