A BAYESIAN FAILURE MODEL-BASED ON ISOTROPIC DETERIORATION

In this paper, we focus on determining a new failure model for hydraul ic structures. The failure model is based on the only information whic h is commonly available: the amount of deterioration averaged over a f inite or an infinite time-horizon. By introducing a prior density for the average deterioration per unit time, we account for uncertainty in a decision problem. Advantages of our Bayesian approach are that we b ase our probabilistic models on a physical observable quantity, the de terioration, and that the probabilities of preventive repair and failu re can be expressed explicitly conditional on the average deterioratio n. One illustration from the field of hydraulic engineering is studied .