HOW MANY RADIOLOGISTS WILL BE NEEDED IN THE YEARS 2000 AND 2010 - PROJECTIONS BASED ON ESTIMATES OF FUTURE-SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Predicting the appropriate number of diagnostic radiologists needed in the United States for the next decade is an important but difficult t ask. Previous attempts have been characterized by incomplete data, con flicting results, and ultimately, as the future revealed itself, erron eous conclusions [1-3]. Nonetheless, with major changes expected in he alth care, estimation of physician workforce needs is perhaps more cri tical than ever before, In this study, both the future supply of diagn ostic radiologists and the demand for diagnostic radiology services in the United States were analyzed. Projected supply of diagnostic radio logists was calculated by using data about the number presently in pra ctice, the current number of radiology residents, and the rate at whic h diagnostic radiologists leave the profession through either retireme nt or death, Demand for radiologic services in the future was evaluate d by estimating effects of possible changes in population and demograp hy, health care reform, technology, universal health insurance, and wo men in radiology.