THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON WINTER MORTALITY IN ENGLAND AND WALES

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly cir culatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder win ter months. This close association between temperature and mortality s uggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief i ntroductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditi ons and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of t he associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for th e years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularl y the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperatur e and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumon ia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistic al models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rate s for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher tempera tures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deat hs each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from i schaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might cha nge when further research is able to make into account a number of add itional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and clima te.