R. Ball et al., PROBLEMS IN MEASURING PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE - AN APPLICATION TO CONTRARIAN INVESTMENT STRATEGIES, Journal of financial economics, 38(1), 1995, pp. 79-107
We document problems in measuring raw and abnormal five-year contraria
n portfolio returns. 'Loser' stocks are low-priced and exhibit skewed
return distributions. Their 163% mean return is due largely to their l
owest-price quartile position. A $1/8th price increase reduces the mea
n by 25%, highlighting their sensitivity to microstructure/liquidity e
ffects. Long positions in low-priced loser stocks occur disproportiona
tely after bear markets and thus induce expected-return effects. A con
trarian portfolio formed at June-end earns negative abnormal returns,
in contrast with the December-end portfolio. This conclusion is not li
mited to a particular version of the CAPM.