The standard Rectangular Parallelepiped (RPP) construct is used to der
ive a closed form expression for, ($) over bar sigma(theta, phi, L) th
e directional-spectral heavy ion upset cross section, This is an expec
ted value model obtained by integrating the point-value cross section
model, sigma(theta, phi, L, E), also developed here, with the Weibull
density function, f(E), assumed to govern the stochastic behavior of t
he upset threshold energy, E. A comparison of ($) over bar sigma(theta
, phi, L) with experimental data show good agreement, lending strong c
redibility to the hypothesis that E-randomness is responsible for the
shape of the upset cross section curve, The expected value model is us
ed as the basis for a new, rigorous mathematical formulation of the ef
fective cross section concept, The generalized formulation unifies pre
vious corrections to the inverse cosine scaling, collapsing to Peterse
n's correction, [cos theta - (h/l) sin theta](-1), near threshold and
Sexton's, [cos theta + (h/l) sin theta](-1), near saturation, The expe
cted value cross section model therefore has useful applications in bo
th upset rate prediction and test data analysis.