PREDICTING GROWTH OF PLANTATION CONIFERS IN THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE-CHANGE

Three conifer species grown in plantations in the southeastern Adirond ack Mountains of New York were chosen to model tree growth. Annual gro wth of trees was decomposed into several components that reflect vario us intrinsic or extrinsic factors. Growth signals indicative of climat ic effects were used to construct growth-climate models using both mul tivariate regression analysis and Kalman filter methods. Two growth mo dels were used to simulate tree growth response to future climate chan ge projected by GCMs. The consistent results of both models indicate t hat different conifer species have individualistic growth responses to future climatic change. The response behaviors of trees are affected greatly by local stand conditions and species tolerance to drought.