PROGNOSTIC FACTORS IN SEVERE ACUTE-PANCRE ATITIS - A UNIVARIANT AND MULTIVARIANT STUDY

Objectives: The aim of this study was to analize the prediction of mor tality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis. Patients and method s: In a retrospective study 43 patients with severe acute pancreatitis were included. All patients required ICU admitance acid surgical trea tment. We evaluated severity according to Ranson's criteria, APACHE II score, CT scan classification (Hill), intraoperative findings (Vankem mel's classification) and number of organs failure. We performed a uni variant and multivariant statistic study with lineal discriminant anal ysis. Results: The overall mortality was 46,5%. Ranson's score and APA CHE II did not correlate with mortality. Hill's classification did not reach significance either. However, only the Vankemmel's classificati on and the number of organs failure had statistic value (p<0,01). Afte r lineal discriminant analysis, the association of more than 4 Ransonl s criteria, APACHE II up to 9 points, grades IV and V in Hill's classi fication and 4 organs failure had a predictive value for mortality. Co nclusions: In our limited experience the Vankemmel's classification an d the number of organs failure had a predictive value for mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. The association of more than 4 Rans on's criteria. APACHE II up to 8 points, grades IV-V in Hill's classif ication and 4 organs failure disclosed poor prognosis.