6-YEAR PREDICTORS OF PROBLEMS IN A NATIONAL SAMPLE OF CHILDREN AND YOUTH .2. SIGNS OF DISTURBANCE

Objective: To identify 1986 and 1989 variables that significantly pred icted signs of disturbance assessed in 1992. Method: 1986 parent repor ts and 1989 parent, teacher, and self-reports of syndromes, competenci es, family variables, and stressful experiences were tested as predict ors of 1992 reports of academic problems, school behavior problems, re ceipt of mental health services, suicidal behavior, police contacts, s ubstance abuse, and the sum of these six signs. Results: The predictor s accounted for large percentages of variance in most signs and predic ted fairly accurately which members of case-control samples would mani fest specific signs. Overall predictive accuracy was similar for both sexes, but many predictors differed for boys versus girls. The six sig ns were weakly associated with each other but were strongly associated with particular syndromes. Conclusions: Signs of disturbance were pre dictable over a 6-year period despite the diversity of a national samp le. Previous manifestations of certain signs were modest predictors of the same signs. The Delinquent Behavior and Attention Problems syndro mes, plus stressful experiences, predicted the most signs. Sex differe nces in predictors argue against generalizing findings and inferences from one sex to the other.