APPLICATION OF THE BAYESIAN-APPROACH IN REGIONAL-ANALYSIS OF EXTREME RAINFALLS

Based on the Partial Duration Series model a regional Bayesian approac h is introduced in the modelling of extreme rainfalls from a country-w ide system of recording raingauges in Denmark. The application of the Bayesian principles is derived in case of both exponential and general ized Pareto-distributed exceedauces. The method is applied to, respect ively, the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10 minutes rain i ntensity of individual storms from 41 stations. By means of the region al analysis prior distributions of the parameters in the Partial Durat ion Series model are estimated. It is shown that the regional approach significantly reduces the uncertainty of the T-year event estimator c ompared to estimation based solely on at-site data. In addition, the r egional approach provides quantile estimates at non-monitored sites.