THE DETERMINANTS OF INDIVIDUAL UNEMPLOYMENT DURATIONS IN AN ERA OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper presents the results of an econometric analysis of the cond itional probability of leaving unemployment for two male inflow cohort s entering unemployment at very different points in time: 1978 and 198 7. The effect of income while unemployed is found to be much weaker fo r the 1987 cohort, an elasticity of -0.1 compared with -0.4, and is on ly found to be significant for teenagers and in the first three months of a spell. Demand constraints, measured by the local unemployment ra te, are found to have a stronger negative effect on the exit probabili ty for the 1987 cohort than in 1978.