MULTIOBJECTIVE WATER-RESOURCES INVESTMENT PLANNING UNDER BUDGETARY UNCERTAINTY AND FUZZY ENVIRONMENT

An integration of Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) and Fuzzy Integ er Goal Programming (FIGP) modelling framework is proposed to handle p roblems of multiobjective-multicriteria sequential decision making und er budgetary and socio-technical uncertainties inherent in water resou rces investment planning. In the proposed SDP model probabilities of t he funding levels in any time period that are generated using a subjec tive model are employed to handle budgetary fluctuations. This subject ive model consists of historical data as a basic rate, functional rela tionships among inter-related parameters of the SDP model, scenarios o f future budget availability, and subjective inputs elicited from a gr oup of decision makers through a collective opinion technique. Use of the SDP model primarily yields an optimal investment planning policy t hat recognizes the possibility that actual funding received maybe less than the anticipated and therefore the projects being implemented und er the anticipated budget would be interrupted. Economic return of eac h level of investment decision together with its associated project po rtfolio is determined by the FIGP model under the environment of impre cise (fuzzy) budget limits and goals, and is then used in the SDP mode l to establish the sequential optimal policy. This second level optimi zation model can be used to handle other types of socio-economic uncer tainty and multiobjective issues in the overall approach by considerin g explicitly socio-economic measures and imprecision in the specificat ion of parameters of input data.