Lh. Ederington et Jh. Lee, THE SHORT-RUN DYNAMICS OF THE PRICE ADJUSTMENT TO NEW INFORMATION, Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 30(1), 1995, pp. 117-134
We examine how prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures ma
rkets adjust to the new information contained in scheduled macroeconom
ic news releases in the very short run. Using 10-second returns and ti
ck-by-tick data, we find that prices adjust in a series of numerous sm
all, but rapid, price changes that begin within 10 seconds of the news
release and are basically completed within 40 seconds of the release.
There is some evidence that prices overreact in the first 40 seconds
but that this is corrected in the second or third minute after the rel
ease. While volatility tends to be higher than normal just before the
news release, there is no evidence of information leakage. In our anal
ysis, we correct for the biases created by bid-ask spreads and tick-by
-tick data.