A field study was conducted to evaluate the relative importance of fac
tors affecting seedling establishment and survival on a mangrove-domin
ated island in Belize. An examination of spatial patterns of seedling
relative densities in relation to reproductive adults and physico-chem
ical conditions provided correlative information on factors affecting
mangrove regeneration patterns. Distance from reproductive adults expl
ained 89-94% of the variation in relative density of Rhizophora mangle
seedlings, whereas availability of resources (light and NH,) explaine
d 73-80% of variation in Avicennia germinans seedling relative density
. Just after dispersal (December), 89% of the variation in Lagunculari
n racemosa seedling relative density was attributable to distance from
reproductive adults, but 7 months later (July) 74% of the variation w
as explained by intensity of flooding- and salinity-related stresses.
Survivorship (after 2.5 years) of propagules and seedlings of R. mangl
e and A. germinans transplanted to zones of contrasting physico-chemic
al conditions demonstrated that: (1) mortality was highest during the
establishment phase and major causes were failure to strand before via
bility was lost, consumption by predators and desiccation; and (2) aft
er establishment, differences in sensitivity to physicochemical stress
factors such as flooding (A. germinans) and initial orientation of th
e seedling axis (R. mangle) exerted a further influence on seedling su
rvival. The results indicate that seedling recruitment in these neotro
pical forests is strongly influenced by dispersal patterns, differenti
al establishment abilities and effects of physico-chemical factors tha
t vary with elevation and distance from the shoreline.