Objective: To test the hypothesis that psychosocial factors that are c
losely related to the behavioural stress process in developing countri
es have predictive value for the incidence of hypertension. Design: A
cohort of 528 African students (220 White, 308 Black), mean+/-SD age 2
2+/-3.2 years, were followed up for 4 years at the University of Zimba
bwe. Baseline measures of selected psychosocial variables such as anxi
ety, anger, expression, active coping and family instability were made
, together with biological and behavioural predictors of hypertension
(initial blood pressure, heart rate, body mass, family history of hype
rtension or diabetes, alcohol intake, smoking and number of years of u
rbanization). Analyses were stratified by sex and ethnicity. Results:
In multivariate analysis Black students had significantly greater base
line anxiety levels and suppressed anger than White students, and Blac
k students who went on to develop hypertension had significantly highe
r baseline parameters than those who remained normotensive. In multiva
riate regression analysis, including biological predictors, anxiety, s
uppressed anger and family instability remained significant independen
t predictors of hypertension in urbanized Black students. No psychosoc
ial variable alone predicted hypertension in White students in multiva
riate analyses. Conclusions: Among young, urbanized Black students, be
sides the well-known genetic (family history of hypertension) and biol
ogical (initial blood pressure, heart rate, body mass index, smoking a
nd alcohol intake) predictors of hypertension, psychosocial factors ar
e predictive of the later incidence of hypertension. Behavioural non-p
harmacological treatment for hypertension might be considered in Afric
an developing countries.