This paper presents detailed analysis of a very unusual event-a recent
six-year period during which big excess returns were earned on the sh
ort-term interest-bearing assets of a small open economy: Australia. A
risk premium does not explain the excess return. Rather than requirin
g a risk premium, market participants continually expected significant
real depreciation of the Australian dollar, despite the fact that on
average it appreciated in real terms. Our results may be a consequence
of the foreign exchange market only gradually learning about the chan
ged nature of the world capital market in the 1980s.