CONTRIBUTION OF COMPUTER-MODELS TO SOLVING THE ENERGY PROBLEM

Energy systems combine the sources of energy, the means for converting these sources to usable forms, the distribution devices and procedure s, the using community and the ways it employs energy, and the surroun ding natural and economic environment. Thus, energy systems are socioe conomic systems whose analysis includes various sciences with differen t limitations to scientific findings. While their physical behavior ma y be modeled on the computer with sufficient precision at least on a l ocal or regional level the parameters necessary for economic modeling are subject to large principle uncertainties. Qualitative parameters m ay enter the analysis via model restrictions or exogenous assumptions, which inevitably involve personal views. Solving the global energy pr oblem is an urgent task that cannot be postponed until a provable scie ntific solution is found, especially since such a solution may never e merge. In this situation systems analysis based on energy models may s upport the necessary decisions by enhancing the understanding of energ y systems However, such models will not lead to correct or validated q uantitative results, but to reasonable qualitative suggestions.