THE CHALLENGE OF FORECASTING HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN REGION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE .2. FORECAST TECHNIQUES AND APPLICATIONS

Over the years, as the recognition and understanding of the structure and climatic frequency of heavy-rain events has expanded, there has be en a corresponding improvement in the available forecast guidance on b oth the national and local level. Numerous operational procedures, for ecast applications, and objective techniques have been developed at Na tional Weather Service (NWS) field offices to assess the potential for heavy precipitation and flooding. The use of simple models and operat ional checklists, as well as the identification of precipitation enhan cements due to the effects of terrain and local climatology, provide f orecasters with useful tools that help interpret and improve upon the central guidance products. In addition, the NWS Eastern Region has dev ised and implemented an aggressive and comprehensive program to suppor t the daily formulation of quantitative precipitation estimates approp riate for the production of more timely and accurate river forecasts. Finally, access to high-resolution information from new remote sensor technologies such as Doppler radar, vertical wind profilers, lightning detection networks, and the next generation of geostationary satellit es presents the possibility of a substantial improvement in the predic tion of heavy precipitation.