NEW TECHNIQUES FOR PREDICTING SOLAR PROTON FLUENCES FOR RADIATION EFFECTS APPLICATIONS

At geosynchronous altitudes, solar proton events can be a significant source of radiation exposure for devices such as optical imagers, memo ries and solar cells. These events appear to occur randomly with respe ct to time and magnitude during the active period of each solar cycle. New probabilistic descriptions, including extreme value theory, are g iven in forms applicable to assessing mission risks for both single ev ents and the cumulative fluence of multiple events. The analyses yield simpler forms than previous models, include more recent data, and can easily be incorporated into existing computer programs.