INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY IN 335 YEARS OF CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURES

Understanding the natural variability of climate is important for pred icting its near-term evolution. Models of the oceans' thermohaline and wind-driven circulation show low-frequency oscillations. Long instrum ental records can help validate the oscillatory behavior of these mode ls. Singular spectrum analysis applied to the 335-year-long central En gland temperature (GET) record has identified climate oscillations wit h interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) period s, probably related to the North Atlantic's wind-driven and thermohali ne circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction of oscillatory va riability shows CETs decreasing toward the end of this decade and risi ng again into the middle of the next.