THE IMPACT OF SENTENCING GUIDELINES ON JAIL INCARCERATION IN MINNESOTA

Although available empirical evidence suggests that Minnesota's Determ inate Sentencing Law has had little effect on prison incarceration, it is still uncertain whether the sentencing guidelines affected jail us e. A few recent studies imply that the guidelines have had a positive effect on jail incarceration rates. Accounts have pointed to preexisti ng trends, more severe sanctioning of repeat property offenders, and j udicial concern with prison overcrowding as possible underlying causes of this observed increase. Using longitudinal data and an ARIMA study design, we investigate the validity of these competing explanations. Our findings show that the onset of the sentencing guidelines increase d judicial use of the jail sanction beyond the effect of preexisting t rends. In addition, the effect of mitigated dispositional departures f rom the no prison/prison outcome on jail use is salient only when pris on population levels are high. This latter finding supports the thesis that judicial concern with prison overcrowding motivated judges to ci rcumvent the guidelines in order to shift the burden of incarcerating offenders from the state to the local level. The policy implications o f these results for determinate sentencing reform are discussed.