AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK OF CHRONIC LUNG INJURY ATTRIBUTABLE TO LONG-TERM OZONE EXPOSURE

This paper presents an application of a formal process for encoding ex perts' probabilistic judgments. The objective is to characterize scien tific judgment regarding the risk of chronic lung injury to children a ged 8 through 16 and to adult outdoor workers due to long-term ozone e xposure in areas with patterns of exposure similar to those found in S outhern California and the Northeast. Our measure of injury is the inc idence of mild or moderate lesions in the centriacinar region of the l ung. probabilities over population response rates were elicited from s ix health experts actively researching ozone-induced lung injury. We d escribe our approach, present some judgmental probability distribution s over the population response rates for formation of lesions induced by exposure to ozone, summarize some qualitative results, and offer so me concluding comments.