Rl. Winkler et al., AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK OF CHRONIC LUNG INJURY ATTRIBUTABLE TO LONG-TERM OZONE EXPOSURE, Operations research, 43(1), 1995, pp. 19-28
Citations number
28
Categorie Soggetti
Management,"Operatione Research & Management Science","Operatione Research & Management Science
This paper presents an application of a formal process for encoding ex
perts' probabilistic judgments. The objective is to characterize scien
tific judgment regarding the risk of chronic lung injury to children a
ged 8 through 16 and to adult outdoor workers due to long-term ozone e
xposure in areas with patterns of exposure similar to those found in S
outhern California and the Northeast. Our measure of injury is the inc
idence of mild or moderate lesions in the centriacinar region of the l
ung. probabilities over population response rates were elicited from s
ix health experts actively researching ozone-induced lung injury. We d
escribe our approach, present some judgmental probability distribution
s over the population response rates for formation of lesions induced
by exposure to ozone, summarize some qualitative results, and offer so
me concluding comments.