Measurements of stratospheric water vapor by the Microwave Limb Sounde
r aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite show that in the trop
ical lower stratosphere, low-frequency variations are closely related
to the annual cycle in tropical tropopause temperatures. Tropical stra
tospheric air appears to retain information about the tropopause condi
tions it encountered for over a year as it rises through the stratosph
ere. We use a two-dimensional Lagrangian model to relate MLS measureme
nts to the temperature that tropical air parcels encountered when cros
sing the 100 hPa surface.