THE RATIO OF AIDS TO NON-AIDS MEDICAID MEDICAL COSTS FROM 1992 TO 2000

Our research objective was to calculate and forecast the monthly incre ase in medical and prescription costs for Medicaid patients with acqui red immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and compare these values with cos ts for non-AIDS patients. A retrospective analysis of AIDS patients an d a control group of Georgia Medicaid beneficiaries was conducted betw een January 1, 1988, and December 31, 1991. AIDS patients were defined using the Keyes algorithm of combinations of International Classifica tion of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. The AIDS patient group was matched demographically to a group of non-AIDS patie nts. Data were adjusted to account for eligibility status, and the rat io of AIDS costs to non-AIDS costs was modeled with an econometric tim e series procedure. A total of 1966 AIDS patients were identified from 900,000 Medicaid recipients in the study period; 58.0% were male and 59.8% were black. Age was bimodal at less than or equal to 1 year and 33 years. The best fit for the medical cost ratios produced a signific ant regression coefficient of .37. The initial ratio of AIDS to non-AI DS forecast was 4.25 in January 1992. The January 2000 forecast of thi s ratio increased to 42.56, This increase equates to an additional $85 10.19 per AIDS patient-month for January 2000 in 1991 dollars. The out patient prescription ratio for AIDS versus non-AIDS patients was not p redictable. However, the greatest observed discrepancies were attribut ed to the expense for antihemophilia products. Overall, the most impor tant finding was the accelerating medical costs for treating AIDS pati ents compared with costs for treating non-AIDS patients. These results may, in part, reflect additional costs for treating intravenous drug users and pediatric AIDS patients.