A PRELIMINARY METHOD OF PREDICTING PLANT-SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS USING THE BRITISH-NATIONAL-VEGETATION-CLASSIFICATION

1. The British National Vegetation Classification (NVC) was used to de velop a modelling system to predict the habitat suitability for plant species on the basis of environment and management information. 2. The model was developed for a subset of 27 plant communities (containing 534 species) in the area of the catchment of the River Tyne in north-e ast England. Environmental inputs into the model included climate and soil data, whilst management inputs included sheep stocking rates, fer tilizer applications and cutting regimes. 3. The model was validated b y comparing the predicted plant communities and species with those obs erved at two sites of contrasting scales: at a farm scale on 96 ha of moorland on a Northumberland farm, and at a landscape scale on 15 km(2 ) of upland moor in Northumberland. 4. The accuracy of the model predi ctions for plant communities appeared to be related to their spatial s cale, whilst the accuracy of species predictions was dependant on thei r constancy within communities. Predictions were more accurate for spe cies than for communities. 5. The potential use of this modelling appr oach, and possible extensions to the methodology, are discussed in rel ation to land management.