SURVIVAL MODELING IN KIDNEY-TRANSPLANTATION - HAZARD RATES OF GRAFT LOSS

Mathematical modelling of survival data provides long-term projection of graft survival and allows evaluation of the impact of several varia bles on graft outcome. We analysed 52315 first cadaveric grafts perfor med between 1971 and 1985 and reported to the EDTA Registry. We quanti fied the risk of graft loss using the hazard rates. The hazard functio n provides the magnitude of the risk of graft loss at a given time pos t-transplantation. For the 1971 and the 1985 cohorts, the risk of graf t loss at 1 month post-transplantation was 143 and 53 per 1000 patient -months, respectively. At I year it was 5 and 2.4 per 1000, respective ly. The hazard function thus allowed quantification of the magnitude o f the risk of graft loss and its evolution along with time. At 5 years post-transplantation, the risk of graft loss was close to 1 per 1000, whatever the cohort considered, quantifying the lack of improvement o f graft losses in the long term since the early 1970s. It was also pos sible to evaluate the composition of the risk and to explore the respe ctive influence of graft failure and of patient death.